
How Long Will It Take to Rebuild After the LA Wildfires?
In the wake of the most devastating wildfire season Los Angeles has ever experienced, at least
11,100 residential units have been destroyed, displacing tens of thousands of Angelinos.
The goal, of course, is to help these families rebuild as quickly as possible. But the reality of rebuilding on this scale is complicated. So how long will it take to rebuild after the LA wildfires?
As experienced real estate developers who have operated in the LA market for a decade, we’re going to try to answer that difficult question for you.
How Long Will It Take to Rebuild After the LA Wildfires?
Let’s consider the timeline in steps.
Step 1: Debris Removal and Environmental Testing - Estimated Timeline: 18-24 Months
Before we can rebuild, we need to clear the debris.
Unfortunately, this is a more challenging task than you may think. The amount of hazardous materials released in the burn zones is overwhelming. Asbestos, lead, and toxic ash all require specialized handling to avoid further contamination, particularly where water sources are concerned. This means the cleanup must be slow and methodic.
The good news is that the community and the government are springing into action. State and federal agencies began the process of debris removal on February 11, just
35 days after the fires started. For comparison, this is about half the time it took to initialize similar operations after the 2018 Woolsey Fire.
The bad news is that this process takes time. Even if the initial emergency cleanup can be completed in just 6-12 months, environmental engineers will need time to test the soil to confirm that it’s free from toxic contaminants and safe to build on.
Depending on the extent of the damage, it could take
18-24 months to clear the area for redevelopment.
Step 2: Infrastructure Rebuilding - Estimated Timeline: 1-3 Years
Restoring the infrastructure means rebuilding roads, sidewalks, and bridges, but it also means rebuilding the systems that bring utilities (electricity, internet, water, gas, sewer, etc.) to the affected neighborhoods. Additionally, it means reestablishing necessary local amenities such as schools, fire stations, hospitals, and police stations.
This is a massive undertaking, requiring many skilled workers and ample materials. Unfortunately, the current presidential administration’s policies could make it difficult to access and afford the labor and materials needed.
With over
40% of LA’s construction workforce being foreign-born, there is legitimate concern about their status in America. Even those who are legal residents have no guarantee of having their residency permits renewed. And those who are trying to navigate the path to legal residency and citizenship face excessive wait times and fees. Mass deportations would reduce the labor force, impacting the timeline to rebuild and causing costs to skyrocket.
Furthermore, the threats of tariffs and trade wars have already strained relationships with critical trading partners for the construction industry. Tariffs will make materials and supplies more expensive and less available, again resulting in delays and higher costs.
With the current workforce and global supply chains, this work could take 1-3 years. Without access to our current labor force and/or suppliers, the timeline could easily double.
Step 3: Permitting - Estimated Timeline: 6-24 Months
The LA permit office generally operates with a
substantial backlog. This means it can take 6-12 months to get a permit under normal market conditions.
Following the wildfires, we’re expecting some conflicting changes in permitting. First,
building codes may change to make structures more fire-resistant. This can increase the checklist and time for permitting. However, the department may hire more workers in anticipation of the increase in permit applications, which can speed things up. Furthermore, the current administration claims to
prioritize removing regulatory burdens for homebuilders, which could remove some barriers and allow for faster processing.
Step 4: Residential and Commercial Rebuilding - Estimated Timeline 3-10 Years
Based on the prior steps, it will be years before we can begin rebuilding homes and businesses. Once the construction begins, the timeframe will depend on the availability of labor, materials, and supplies.
Building one house can take 12-24 months. But when we have over 10,000 homes in the queue, it’s going to take longer. Especially because we can’t afford to pause the normal rate of construction outside the burn areas. In 2023 alone, Los Angeles had an
estimated housing shortage of 337,000 units. Prior to the fires, homebuilders were already preparing to increase residential construction in LA. And the need for housing can’t wait.
Step 5: Economic and Community Recovery - Estimated Timeline 5-10 Years
With the physical rebuilding complete, it will still take time for businesses to reopen, attracting workers and residents back at pre-2025 levels. The areas aren’t fully recovered until the communities have been restored.
Summary of How Long Will It Take to Rebuild After the LA Wildfires
All told, we’re looking at 16.5 to 27 years for a full physical and economic recovery for the neighborhoods affected by the LA wildfires. If political policies reduce the local workforce or availability of supplies, we could be looking at closer to 40 years.
How Gatsby Investment is Supporting the LA Community
Gatsby remains committed to developing in-demand housing throughout Los Angeles. Our goal is to balance attainable housing for Angelinos with strong return potential for our investors.
Dan Gatsby, founder and CEO of Gatsby Investment, founded the
Los Angeles Builder’s Association in 2024 to promote sustainable building practices in LA and foster industry collaboration to make development more efficient. Dan and the Gatsby team will continue to support local builders, developers, architects, designers, and contractors as we work together to restore and improve Los Angeles.